Saturday, October 18, 2014

The 25 Highest And Lowest Team OPS Differentials From 1914-2014

Compiled from the Baseball Reference Play Index and Retrosheet

Here are the highest


Team Year OPS OPSA DIFF
NYY 1927 0.872 0.636 0.236
NYY 1939 0.825 0.638 0.187
NYY 1936 0.864 0.691 0.173
NYY 1931 0.840 0.673 0.167
NYY 1937 0.825 0.661 0.164
PHA 1929 0.816 0.655 0.161
PHA 1928 0.799 0.644 0.155
NYY 1921 0.838 0.683 0.155
NYY 1932 0.830 0.675 0.155
NYY 1930 0.872 0.719 0.153
SLB 1922 0.823 0.673 0.150
STL 1944 0.745 0.596 0.149
STL 1942 0.717 0.570 0.147
STL 1939 0.785 0.641 0.144
NYY 1926 0.806 0.663 0.143
NYY 1934 0.782 0.639 0.143
PHA 1931 0.789 0.648 0.141
NYY 1928 0.816 0.677 0.139
PHA 1930 0.821 0.682 0.139
ATL 1998 0.795 0.657 0.138
BAL 1969 0.756 0.620 0.136
NYY 1933 0.809 0.674 0.135
CLE 1920 0.793 0.659 0.134
STL 1943 0.725 0.592 0.133
WSH 1930 0.795 0.663 0.132

Now the lowest


Team Year OPS OPSA DIFF
SEA 1978 0.673 0.778 -0.105
SEA 1980 0.664 0.769 -0.105
KCA 1955 0.703 0.809 -0.106
KCR 2004 0.720 0.828 -0.108
KCR 2005 0.716 0.825 -0.109
MIN 2011 0.666 0.775 -0.109
SLB 1951 0.674 0.784 -0.110
NYM 1966 0.643 0.755 -0.112
KCA 1956 0.686 0.799 -0.113
SDP 1969 0.614 0.730 -0.116
TOR 1978 0.667 0.783 -0.116
TBD 2002 0.704 0.820 -0.116
NYM 1962 0.679 0.797 -0.118
HOU 2013 0.674 0.792 -0.118
DET 2002 0.679 0.798 -0.119
TOR 1979 0.673 0.793 -0.120
PIT 2010 0.678 0.798 -0.120
NYM 1965 0.604 0.728 -0.124
SDP 1974 0.632 0.764 -0.132
DET 1996 0.743 0.875 -0.132
FLA 1998 0.690 0.825 -0.135
DET 2003 0.675 0.813 -0.138
OAK 1979 0.648 0.786 -0.138
NYM 1963 0.600 0.740 -0.140
PHA 1954 0.648 0.803 -0.155

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Team Winning Percentage As A Function Of OPS Differentials In High, Medium And Low Leverage Situations

I recently posted a regression generated equation where team winning pct was a function of overall OPS differential. It was based on the years 2010-14. All data from Baseball Reference's Play Index. Here it is

Pct = .5 + 1.3246*OPSDIFF

The r-squared was .827 and the standard error was .0286, which works out to 4.64 wins per season. I was interested in seeing how many more games the Royals won than their OPS differential of just .003 would indicate. It was 7.36.

Using the same years, here is the equation when breaking things down by leverage

Pct = .5 + .306*LOW +.420*MED + .564*HIGH

Where LOW, MED and HIGH are the OPS differentials in the three cases

The r-squared was .906 and the standard error was .0212, which works out to 3.44 wins per season. So a better estimate than just overall OPS differential.

Here are the PA percentages for each case in MLB in 2014

High) 0.205
Med) .365
Low) .43

So even though the high leverage situations are only around 20% of the total, they still have the biggest impact. Those are generally the cases where the game is closer and later than normal, usually with runners on base.

Here are the OPS and OPS allowed by the Royals for the three cases this year:

High) .713, .630
Med)  .713, .700
Low) .659, .700

Using those numbers to get the Royals' differentials and plugging thems into the 2nd equation we get a .540 pct, just a bit lower than their actual pct of .549. A .540 pct would give them 87.5 wins or just 1.5 fewer than expected. So their performance in high leverage situations for the most part explains how well they did this year. They move 4.86 wins closer to their actual total when leverage is taken into account.

See About WPA and Leverage.

Fangraphs on Leverage

Sunday, October 12, 2014

How Have The Royals Won 7.36 More Games Than Their OPS Differential Would Indicate?

They had a .690 OPS during the season and allowed .687. That should give them a .50397 winning pct or 81.64 wins. They actually won 89 games. I had a regression about a week ago that had pct as

Pct = .5 + 1.3246*OPSDIFF

The tables below show what the Royals hit and allowed this year. Their big advantages are with RISP and when it is Late & Close. They had differentials of .052 and .057 in those two cases.


Royals BA OBP SLG OPS
Totals 0.263 0.314 0.376 0.690
None on 0.258 0.308 0.373 0.680
Men On 0.268 0.321 0.381 0.701
RISP 0.271 0.332 0.399 0.732
Late & Close 0.245 0.310 0.340 0.650


Royals Opponents BA OBP SLG OPS
Totals 0.250 0.310 0.377 0.687
None on 0.249 0.304 0.378 0.682
Men On 0.252 0.317 0.375 0.692
RISP 0.246 0.311 0.369 0.680
Late & Close 0.221 0.292 0.300 0.593

If I use some research I did a few years ago, Does Team Clutch Matter in Baseball?, where I estimate pct by breaking things down into RISP & NONRISP and Late&Close & NONLate&Close (the OPS and OPS allowed in each case), I get some slightly higher estimates for the Royals winning pct.

Using the Late&Close regression, they would have about a .520 winning pct and using the RISP regression, they would have about a .525 pct. There probably is a bit of an overlap between the two situations (maybe 4.165% because usually RISP is about 25% of PAs and L&C is about 16.66%-multiplying .25*.1666 gets about .04165).

But perhaps combining the two together would get us to about a .540 winning pct. That would be 87.5 wins and that is pretty close to the 89 they actually got.

Major League Situational Stats, 2010-2014

Compiled using the Baseball Reference Play Index.

Split PA BA OBP SLG OPS
Total 923779 0.254 0.319 0.398 0.717
None On 520158 0.249 0.310 0.393 0.702
Men On 403621 0.261 0.332 0.405 0.737
RISP 238074 0.255 0.339 0.394 0.733
Late & Close 153559 0.240 0.316 0.365 0.681

Here is what I have for the years 1991-2000. The relative differences are not too much different than they used to be.

Friday, October 3, 2014

Is it hard to quantify the success of the Giants?

One of the announcers on the Fox broadcast said it was today (around the time they mentioned their low SB total of 55). They did win 2.67 more games than their OPS differential would predict. But that is not a very large difference. Even if we drop them from 88 to 85 wins, they still make the playoffs.

I looked at all teams from 2010-2014. In a regression, team winning pct was the dependent variable and OPS differential was the independent variable. Here is the equation

Pct = .5 + 1.3246*OPSDIFF

The Giants had a .699 OPS and allowed a .679 OPS for a .020 differential. Plugging that into the equation gives a pct of about .52649 while they actually had .54321. So their actual pct was about .0165 higher than predicted. Over 162 games that is 2.67 wins.

Thursday, October 2, 2014

Could The Tigers Hit 200 HRs If They Played In Camden Yards?

They just said so on the TBS broadcast. Here are the road HR totals for all AL teams this year


Baltimore 104
LA Angels 82
Chicago Sox 81
Detroit 79
Toronto 79
Boston 74
Houston 73
Oakland 72
Cleveland 70
Tampa Bay 66
Seattle 63
Minnesota 61
Texas 60
NY Yankees 59
Kansas City 52


So the Tigers would have to hit 121 HRs in Camden. Here are the home HR totals for all AL teams this year


Baltimore 107
Toronto 98
Houston 90
NY Yankees 88
Detroit 76
Chicago Sox 74
Oakland 74
LA Angels 73
Seattle 73
Cleveland 72
Minnesota 67
Texas 51
Tampa Bay 51
Boston 49
Kansas City 43

So the Orioles out homered the Tigers in road games 104-79. So why would the Tigers out homer the Orioles 121-107 in Camden? They probably would not.

Also, over the 2011-13 seasons, Balt has had a 122 park index for HRs while Detroit has had 99 (just about average). So Balt allows about  22% HRs than average. But that is only half the games. So we could increase the Tigers HR total this year (155) by 11% and we would get 17 more HRs or 172. Far short of 200

Monday, September 29, 2014

White Sox Have Lowest Winning Percentage Ever For Team With Leader In Both ERA+ And OPS+

Chris Sale lead the league with a 178 ERA+ while Felix Hernandez finished 2nd with 170. See AL Pitching Leaders at Baseball Reference.

Jose Abreu lead the league with a 169 OPS+ while Victor Martinez had 168. See AL Batting Leaders at Baseball Reference.

The Sox finished 73-89 for a .451 pct. To see all of other teams that had both leaders click here to see an earlier post. The Sox are the 32nd team to have both leaders and only the 2nd to have a losing record. Sale only started 26 games. If he started 32 and the Sox won 4 of those games, they still finish only 77-85.